Risk Management
Fraud Risk Indicators
Red-flag indicators tracked across the fraud triangle with month-on-month movement.
Why tracking fraud risk indicators matters
Fraud in the public sector carries consequences under PRECCA and the MFMA's irregular-expenditure regime, and both management and auditors are expected to remain alert to red flags across the fraud triangle of pressure, opportunity and rationalisation. Monitoring indicators with month-on-month movement turns fraud risk from an annual assertion into a live, observable signal. AuditPro Core tracks fraud red-flag indicators against the fraud triangle so emerging patterns are visible before they crystallise into losses or findings.
The Numbers
AuditPro Core renders this view from your tenant's live, tamper-evident records. The figures below are illustrative sample data.
Indicators tracked
18
Triggered this month
6
▲ 2 vs last month
Open investigations
4
Tip-offs received
23
YTD via hotline
Triggered indicators by month
Top fraud indicators
| Indicator | Fraud-triangle vertex | Score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round-rand payments | Opportunity | 82 | Investigate |
| Duplicate vendors | Opportunity | 76 | Investigate |
| Weekend journals | Opportunity | 64 | Monitor |
| Budget overspend pressure | Pressure | 58 | Monitor |
| Override of approvals | Rationalisation | 71 | Investigate |
Figures shown are illustrative sample data for demonstration. AuditPro Core renders these views from your own tenant's live, tamper-evident records.
The fraud triangle
Fraud typically requires pressure, opportunity and rationalisation to converge. Organising indicators against these three elements explains why a red flag matters, not just that it exists.
Red-flag indicators
Indicators are observable signals correlated with elevated fraud risk, such as overrides, unusual vendor activity or unexplained variances. They raise suspicion warranting inquiry, not proof of fraud.
Opportunity and controls
Opportunity is the element management most directly controls, through segregation of duties and monitoring. Rising opportunity indicators point to weakening preventive controls.
Trend over snapshot
A single red flag is ambiguous; a sustained upward trend across related indicators is far more telling. Month-on-month movement distinguishes noise from a developing pattern.
How AuditPro Core Bridges the Gap
- Triangle mapping: indicators are organised against pressure, opportunity and rationalisation to give each red flag meaning.
- Movement tracking: month-on-month change is computed so developing patterns surface before they mature.
- Exception escalation: indicators breaching thresholds route for inquiry rather than being logged and ignored.
- Traceability to source: each indicator links to the underlying transactions or events that triggered it for follow-up.
Key Takeaways
- Map indicators to the fraud triangle to understand why each matters.
- Red flags warrant inquiry; they are signals, not proof of fraud.
- Rising opportunity indicators point to weakening preventive controls.
- Trends, not single flags, distinguish real patterns from noise.
See This on Your Own Data
AuditPro Core renders this dashboard from your tenant's live, tamper-evident records — every figure traceable to source.